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Cybergate9.Net

Online ramblings, current & historic, by just another human bean

International Students

Who needs 'em?

ShaunO

1-Minute Read

Just a random thought as we prepare to open our borders to international students because, according to politicians, it’s ‘so important an industry for us’..

According to these 2018 figures the average vice-chancellor salary (the VC is often labelled the CEO of a university) was $890,000 (figures given range $500K to $1.4M)..

So international students are important to who, exactly, you might ask?

Buggered if I know 😛…

Yield Curve Control at neutral

RBA turns gas off on housing hot air balloon

ShaunO

1-Minute Read

So that party’s over then..

The market’s pricing min. 2%+ for 10 year government bond yields, so ergo, by proxy, average inflation for next 10 years is estimated at, at least, 2%.

That is a very steep climb, very quickly out of the covid dip on 10yrs seen at a low of 1% for most of 2020 and again at 1% just 2 months ago.

The current inflation bump is at around 3-4%, the question is for how long?

The bond machinations moves the RBA rate from .1% , at a guess, to ~1% by late 2022, maybe back up as far as ~2.5% by late 2023. Corresponding housing lending rates would be back in the ballpark of 3.75-4.75% p.a.

By abandoning yield curve control, if that’s indeed what it’s doing, the RBA has possibly just purposely turn off the gas on the ever rising hot air balloon that is the Australian housing market.

But of course ‘markets are human’ and just as unpredictable, so I guess we’ll just have to wait and see..

Buggered if I know 😛

A story about inflation

and here it comes..

ShaunO

1-Minute Read

There’s no science to inflation, but you’re going to hear more about it (inflation) in the coming times (years probably).

If it interests you, try to ‘arm yourself’ with access to real analysis by reliable and interesting authors - this article by John Authers fits into that category in my opinion. The ‘vox-pop’ is always so short sighted as to be pretty much useless, and mostly cannot count as any sort of ‘analysis’ at all really.

My own take is, after a couple of decades of being interested in economics and politics, that crises (almost of any sort) seem to be inflationary. A key period I have in mind is the UK after the 2008 ‘GFC’ when UK inflation ran ahead of earnings by about 15% over 3-4 years by my reckoning (this chart seems to bear out my hunch).

Mind you, do remember that being interested in inflation is a ‘spectator sport’ because there is absolutely bugger all you can do about it 🙂

Buggered if i know 😛

Government by idiots for idiots

Throwing your children's tax money away..

ShaunO

1-Minute Read

“The result is an embarrassment for a conservative government that prides itself on fiscal discipline and criticized excess spending by the then-Labor government during the 2008-09 financial crisis.”

There’s an understatement if I ever saw one..

Aside from making the conservative government look idiotic economically (I’d argue that they are going for the ‘clean sweep’ - i.e. making themselves look like idiots in every policy category 😛) it seems indicative of this government’s inability to make relevant policy and then legislate to accurately enact it.

This government (and I don’t really care what ‘colour’ they are politically - red, blue, pink or green 😛) has managed to spend their decade ‘in power’ achieving virtually ‘feck all’.. this news round just adds to the list of damning indictments I think..

Buggered if I know 😛

Jobkeeper Hand Wringing?

Everyone had their snout in the trough..

ShaunO

1-Minute Read

Even ‘Aunty’ is starting to look more tabloid..

Does anybody think jobkeeper was designed to benefit businesses? - No it was designed to put most of ‘Australia on the dole’ (without them showing up in unemployment numbers).

Without a doubt it was badly designed and has ended up being a huge free triple martini for corporates but, and it’s a big but, corporates are not to blame for doing what the government instructed them to do, legally, so that the government could meet the governments objectives (keeping you employed and paid).

This government has borrowed and pissed all that money down the tubes paying your ‘dole’ money for 9-12 months. Let’s face it, everybody (individuals and businesses) had their snout in the jobkeeper trough.

If that pisses you off, blame the government and, tell them so at the ballot box.

Buggered if I know 😛

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Online ramblings, both current and historic, by just another human bean